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1) "Les Miserables"
That trailer that debuted a few months back made it clear that Universal aren't fucking around on this one. Tom Hooper taking a Best Picture for two consecutive films would be virtually unprecedented (James Cameron aside), but the film could be a perfect storm of material, cast and form.
2) "Lincoln"
"War Horse" showed last year that when Spielberg's in serious mode, only a fool would bet against a nomination, particularly with subject matter like this. But the word is that it's more procedural than emotional in nature, which may stop it connecting.
3) "The Master"
The pre-emptive critical favorite of the year (most already seem to have decided it's the best thing since sliced bread), this is likely to get in as such, unless the whole is unsatisfying. But can it win?
4) "Beasts of the Southen Wild"
What seemed like unanimous praise at Sundance has been significantly tempered, but this seems like the rare example of an indie picture that can warm hearts of Academy voters too. How it does when it expands wider (it's at $3 million having never been on more than 130 theaters, which is damn good) will be key.
5) "Argo"
Looking like the key candidate for the kind of smart, grown-up 70s style picture that always seems to have a slot -- "Moneyball," "The Social Network," "Michael Clayton" et al. Of course, we won't know til Toronto if it's any good or not.
6) "Life Of Pi"
A wildly enthusiastic response to this morning's trailer, as well as that to footage at CinemaCon a few months back, suggested that this was a serious player -- this year's "Hugo," in many ways. But it's also a more difficult piece of material than suggested by the marketing to date, and is likely to divide people severely.
7) "The Sessions"
Fox Searchlight's other Sundance darling, this'll be a real player in the performance categories, but wider critical responses may be key in seeing whether it can make a play for the big prize. The crowd-pleasing nature of the film suggests it probably will.
"The Great Gatsby"
One of the major question marks of the season. A starry cast, serious literary material, lavish visuals -- but was Baz Luhrmann the right man for the job? We won't find out until November or December, we imagine.
9) "Zero Dark Thirty"
As a recent Best Picture/Director winner, Kathryn Bigelow's certainly in the running, particularly with material as stirring as her Bin Laden film. But word is it's more of an ensemble piece than "The Hurt Locker" -- will that make it tougher to engage with on an emotional level?
10) "Moonrise Kingdom"
The indie smash of the summer finally seems to be tailing off at the box office (it dropped off by 50% this past weekend), but it's certainly made its mark, and could be this year's "Midnight In Paris," in many ways. But Anderson has not been an Academy favorite before now -- could this change that?
11) "Hyde Park On Hudson"
Academy-bait on paper -- it's a New York version of "The King's Speech!" -- but may have to settle for performance nods unless it's a crowd-pleaser like Hooper's film. We'll find out in Toronto.
12) "The Dark Knight Rises"
See the thousand-odd words above. Could certainly rise higher in the coming weeks.
13)"The Silver-Linings Playbook"
Word from the footage screened at Cannes was divided as to whether it was a big Oscar player (many believe it'll be an above-average rom-com at best), and the trailer didn't convince one way or the other, but one shouldn't count David O. Russell out.
14) "Django Unchained"
We've always suspected this was a principally commercial picture, particularly given the potentially controversial subject matter, and a Comic-Con slot seemed to back that up. But then, we would have said that about "Inglourious Basterds" too.
15) "Anna Karenina"
Looks like a difficult beast, given the non-traditional conceit at play. Likely to be a big BAFTA player, but may be too much of a curate's egg, at least if the recent clip is suggestive of the whole.
16) "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
More negatives against it at this stage than with "The Lord of the Rings" -- a less organic storytelling split, the sense of returning to old ground, that controversial 48FPS presentation. But given that the first three films have 30 nominations between them, it shouldn't be counted out.
17) "Cloud Atlas"
We'd initally thought this might be too weird, but the book is well read, and the advance word is very strong indeed. Let's see how it goes down in Toronto -- the presence of Academy favorites like Tom Hanks and Hugo Weaving is sure to help.
18) "Amour"
A serious critic's favorite (and Palme D'Or winner) in Cannes, it's a film whose concerns seem to fall right in the average age of the Academy. But will that mean the film cuts too close to the bone? It's got an uphill battle as a foreign film as it is.
19) "To the Wonder"
Malick did the Picture/Director nomination double last year, but can he do the same again so soon? The starry cast, and seemingly more narrative-led story, of "To the Wonder" might suggest so. But word is it's even more 'difficult' than "The Tree of Life," and perhaps more importantly, hasn't yet landed a distribution, so it may not even be eligible this time around.
20) "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Just as well-suited to the Academy, but far cheerier, the film's surprise box office does put this in the running. But we suspect it'll make way for more substantial fare over time.
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